Waiting & Family Planning (IVF)

IVF. SART national summary, reporting year, patients using their own eggs. Live births per intended egg retrieval, counting every fresh and frozen transfer from that retrieval within the report window, and live births per new patient (all retrievals):

Frozen eggs. Goldman 2017 (Human Reproduction) estimated the chance of at least one live birth from 10 frozen mature eggs at about 69% at age 35 or younger, 45% at 38, 30% at 40 and 20% at 42, and at least two live births at about 30%, 11%, 5% and 2%. This tool fits those points with a simple model (each mature egg has a small, age-dependent chance of becoming a baby, and the number of babies follows a Poisson pattern) and fills in the ages between. At age 43 it uses the finding that more than 120 eggs would be needed for an 80% chance. Real clinics vary, and these figures come from women with normal ovarian reserve.

Part of why the numbers fall with age is that pregnancy loss becomes more common. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and ASRM report miscarriage in about 11% of clinical pregnancies at 33–34, 14% at 35–37, 20% at 38–40, 30% at 41–42 and 37% above 42 (natural and assisted combined).

Cost per baby = expected spend ÷ chance of a baby within your plan

1. IVF chance at a single age. SART reports five age groups. This tool places each group’s result at a typical age in the group (32, 36, 39, 41.5, 44.5) and connects the points with a smooth curve on a log scale. Under 32 it uses the under-35 figure.

2. More than one retrieval. The first retrieval succeeds with chance c. People who need another retrieval do worse than first-timers, so each later retrieval is assumed to succeed with half that chance. This is an editable assumption in the script. With 3 retrievals it gives about 75% under 35, 61% at 35 to 37, 43% at 38 to 40, 24% at 41 to 42 and 9% over 42, in the same range as SART’s live births per new patient (68%, 58%, 43%, 24%, 8%) and the 3-cycle estimates in Luke 2012 (NEJM).

3. Expected spend. Spend = price × (1 + chance the first fails + chance the first two fail…), up to the retrievals you choose.

4. Break-even price. The price per retrieval you would need at the later age for the cost per baby to match today’s.

5. Two children. For a set of retrievals with a chance p of at least one baby, the number of babies is modeled as a Poisson count with mean −ln(1 − p). That gives the chance of two or more babies from the same retrievals, which is what extra frozen eggs or embryos can provide. For frozen eggs the mean is the number of mature eggs times the per-egg chance for your age at freezing. If a path ends up short, the tool adds a new IVF attempt at the later age for each missing child, using the chance and cost from steps 1 to 3. Each attempt is treated as independent.

6. Costs for two children. IVF retrieval costs follow step 3. Storage is the yearly fee times the years until use. Later use of frozen eggs adds the thaw and fertilization fee once plus the transfer fee for about 1.7 transfers per baby (published models assume about 6 in 10 healthy embryos become a baby). Cost per child is expected cost divided by the expected number of children.

If you enter your clinic’s chance, it replaces today’s IVF figure and later ages are scaled by the same national ratio.

• SART, National Summary Report, 2022 reporting year (sartcorsonline.com): live births per intended egg retrieval (all embryo transfers) and per new patient, patient’s own eggs, by age group.
• Goldman RH, et al. Predicting the likelihood of live birth for elective oocyte cryopreservation: a counseling tool for physicians and patients. Hum Reprod 2017;32:853–859.
• Doyle JO, et al. Successful elective and medically indicated oocyte vitrification and warming for autologous in vitro fertilization, with predicted birth probabilities. Fertil Steril 2016;105:459–466.
• Cobo A, et al. Oocyte vitrification as an efficient option for elective fertility preservation. Fertil Steril 2016;105:755–764.
• ASRM Practice Committee. Evidence-based outcomes after oocyte cryopreservation for donor oocyte IVF and planned oocyte cryopreservation: a guideline. Fertil Steril 2021;116.
• Luke B, et al. Cumulative birth rates with linked assisted reproductive technology cycles. N Engl J Med 2012;366:2483–2491.
• Leridon H. Can assisted reproduction technology compensate for the natural decline in fertility with age? A model assessment. Hum Reprod 2004;19:1548–1553.
• ACOG and ASRM, Age-related fertility decline, committee opinion (2008), and ASRM Committee Opinion 589 (Fertil Steril 2014); ASRM and SREI, Optimizing natural fertility (Fertil Steril 2022).
• Price examples are from 2026 consumer cost guides and are for context only.

Change log. v2.0, November 2026: added the “More than one child” tab (egg freezing, embryo banking, now vs. later) and moved shared inputs above the tabs. v1.0: cost of waiting with SART 2022 national data. To update, replace the numbers in the SART table and the egg anchors at the top of the script.